Climate change projections

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) are the latest generation of climate information for the United Kingdom. These provide probabilistic projections of change for a number of climate variables, with three future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, averaged over seven overlapping 30-year time periods, at 25km grid resolution, as well as for 'administrative regions' and 'river basin districts'.

The key trends the projections identify are:

  • Hotter, drier summers; and
  • Milder, wetter winters.

We can also expect to see:

  • Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought;
  • Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; 
  • Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall; and
  • Sea level rise (depending on emissions scenario - central estimates of sea level rise in Edinburgh are 10 - 18 cm by 2050 and 23 - 39 cm by 2095).

For more information, please visit the UK Climate Projections website.