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1.4 Area Description
The Waste Strategy Area is composed of four local authority areas. The
area essentially covers the South West of Scotland and supports a population of 522,700 (at
1998). Table 1.2 shows the estimated population figures by administrative area for 1998 and
population projections until 2020. Table 1.3 gives the estimated and projected households (by
administrative area) for 51998 for the same period. It should be noted that both the
population and household projections use General Records Office (Scotland) (GRO(S)) data
projected to 2012 and 2016 respectively and extrapolated to 2020 for indicative purposes
only. Given the original data is based on the 1991 Census there is a potential for a
considerable margin of error in the plan period.
Table 1.2 - Projected Population to 2020 for the Four Administration Areas
Area |
1998 |
2005 |
2010 |
2016 |
2020 |
| %change |
| 1998-2020 |
Per year |
|
| Dumfries and Galloway |
147,300 |
145,600 |
143,800 |
141,300 |
139,900 |
-5.0 |
-0.2 |
| East Ayrshire |
121,300 |
117,100 |
113,700 |
109,300 |
106,700 |
-12.0 |
-0.5 |
| North Ayrshire |
139,600 |
139,700 |
139,600 |
139,200 |
139,100 |
-0.4 |
-0.0 |
| South Ayrshire |
114,400 |
114,600 |
115,200 |
116,100 |
116,500 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
Totals for
WSA 9 |
522,700 |
517,000 |
512,300 |
506,000 |
502,200 |
-3.9 |
-0.2 |
Source: Population Projections Scotland (1998 based) published 2000
| Note: |
No national projections beyond 2016. 2020 figure extrapolated using 1998-2016 trends.
Percentage change per annum calculated over total period range: Mid 1998 – Mid 2020 =
18 years. All figures rounded to nearest hundred. Percentage change shown rounded to
one decimal place. See SWMBA (2001) reference data sheets Appendixes 2 and 3 for full
details of calculations.
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With the exception of South Ayrshire, the estimated populations served by the authorities
within the area are in decline. East Ayrshire's current rate of reduction is the most
extreme. When this percentage change is projected forward, it affects both the calculated
annual percentage change for the local authority and the whole area. This has a knock on
effect on the projected tonnages of waste arising (see SWMBA Appendices 2 and 3). The
declining population figures also mask a changing demographic profile (changing age structure,
projected rise in single person households, etc.). These changes are, for example, likely to
give rise to a substantial rise in household formation despite the projected population lost.
As a consequence the changing demographic context could have an effect on waste production,
though without further research this is not possible to quantify. Current evidence, however,
suggests a reduction in household waste arisings is achievable over the period of the plan.
Table 1.3 - Projected Households to 2020 for the Four Administration Areas
Area |
1998 |
2005 |
2010 |
2016 |
2020 |
| %change |
| 1998-2020 |
Per year |
|
| Dumfries and Galloway |
63,000 |
65,700 |
67,300 |
67,900 |
69,000 |
71,000 |
+12.7 |
| East Ayrshire |
50,700 |
51,800 |
52,700 |
52,800 |
53,000 |
54,000 |
+6.5 |
| North Ayrshire |
58,500 |
62,400 |
65,300 |
66,400 |
69,000 |
71,000 |
+21.4 |
| South Ayrshire |
48,200 |
50,600 |
52,400 |
53,200 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
+16.2 |
Totals for
Areas |
220,400 |
230,500 |
237,700 |
240,300 |
246,000 |
252,000 |
+14.3 |
Source: Household Projections Scotland (1998 Based) published 2000
| Note: |
There are no national projections beyond 2012. The figures of 2016 and 2020 have been
extrapolated using 1998-2012 trends to the nearest thousand.
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Estimates can be made for the projected tonnage of household waste if is assumed that it
equals MSW and that waste production is directly proportional to population change (see Table
1.4 over)
| Table 1.4 - |
Projected Household Waste Change 2000–2020 if Directly Proportional to Population Change |
| Year |
1995 |
1998 |
2005 |
2010 |
2020 |
| Population |
|
522,700 |
|
|
|
| Projected population |
|
|
516,974 |
512,157 |
502,239 |
| Tonnage of waste |
310,062 |
|
|
|
|
| Projected tonnage of waste |
|
308,483 |
304,831 |
302,249 |
297,150 |
Source: SWMBA 2001
It should be noted that these figures in the above tables are for indicative purposes only.
The full range of mechanisms influencing waste growth are not completely understood. Further
work is required on how these changes translate into impacts on total waste arisings for the
area.
Industrial Waste (other than construction and demolition)
It is estimated that, in 1998, some 138,000 tonnes of industrial waste was generated in the
area (see Figures 1.1 and 1.2: summarising arisings and disposals ). This excludes sewage
sludge and construction and demolition. Approximately two-thirds of this waste; 96,000 tonnes,
was landfilled within the area. Of the remaining third, roughly 58,000 tonnes, was exported
for recycling. A relatively small amount, approximately 8,000 tonnes, was imported for
recycling which led to a total of 14,000 tonnes being recycled in the area.
These estimates are based upon figures provided by the councils and private contractors, and
collected by Enviros Aspinwall. Although the figures balance in this section, there is not
enough reliable data currently available to estimate growth rates for the industrial wastes
in the area.
Sewage Sludge
It is estimated that in 1998, some 400,000 tonnes (wet weight) of sewage were produced in the
area. These figures are based upon estimates provided by the councils, private contractors
and the former West of Scotland Water. It is recognised that these figures may be inaccurate,
due to variations in private figures supplied. However, 400,000 tonnes is likely to be the
maximum tonnage of sewage sludge arising.
Arisings of sewage sludge are likely to change in the near future. Projected change is less
likely to be affected by the population changes than requirements of the Urban Waste Water
Directive. This will require much higher discharge standards, which could lead to an increase
in sludge production from those treatment works discharging to water. Additional treatment
facilities are planned which will further process the sludge.
Construction and Demolition Waste
It is estimated that in 1998, 400,000 tonnes of construction and demolition waste was
collected in the area. Most of this waste was landfilled in the area. Approximately 172,000
tonnes was collected for recycling purposes. Allowing for the balance of imported and
exported waste, there are 172,000 tonnes entering the system that have not been accounted for,
unless the data have not included the recycling data in the arisings total. This serves to
highlight the problems encountered in gaining reliable quality waste data, and why the group
has focused on MSW.
Special Waste
Only very poor quality data are available on the arisings of special waste in the area,
although there are a number of sites licensed to accept special waste (predominately bonded
asbestos). It is estimated 8,000 tonnes arose in the area, of which 4,500 tonnes were
exported and 3,500 tonnes disposed of internally. From 1997 to 1999 the local SEPA offices
issued a small number of special waste notes. The majority of these notes were issued in
relation to the disposal of small quantities of asbestos from construction and demolition
works.
The main producers of clinical waste in the area are the Ayrshire and Arran Health Board and
the Dumfries and Galloway Health Board. During 1998, this material was transported within the
area to the Crosshouse incinerator, at Kilmarnock.
Agricultural Waste
As agricultural waste is not a controlled waste, there is no obligation on farmers to record
the quantity of waste that they produce. As a result, there are no accurate figures available
on the tonnage of waste generated. The waste minimisation initiative underway in the area
should give an indication of waste arisings from selected farms, which could be used to gain
an estimate of the total agricultural waste arisings for the area.
Summary of Waste Arisings and Disposals
The figures below give an indication of the waste arisings and movements of waste in the area.
Figure 1.1 - Waste Arisings in Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway
Figure 1.2 - Waste Disposals in Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway
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