1.4 Area Description

With 8.7% of the Scottish population and producing 10.9% of the National GDP, the North East Waste Strategy Area is one of the UK’s most prosperous economies; producing around a million tonnes of commercial and industrial waste a year (1). However, this prosperity is not seen equally throughout the area. Moray, for instance, is covered by European Structural Funds and is eligible for Objective 1 in West Moray and Objective 2 in East Moray.

The north sea oil and gas industry has had a major effect on the regional population for many years, which has expanded 15% over the last 30 years. This has helped to raise living standards and income levels well above the Scottish average in some areas. This, in turn, has been accompanied by high demand for land for housing and industry, particularly around Aberdeen. The presence of two major RAF bases in Moray has had a significant effect on the population and economy locally. However, these developments are not distributed equally throughout the area. Agriculture and fisheries, while they were historically important in the North East and remain so today, are seen to be declining. In some of the more remote communities, provision for services and facilities, employment and access to housing can be limited.

The WSA is a region of contrasts. Within Aberdeen City (population 212,000), over 60% of waste collection routes are in areas of high housing density with less than 10% collected in areas regarded as low housing density. In Moray on the other hand (population 87,000), 60% of waste collection routes are in areas of medium housing density with 40% low density. In Aberdeenshire (population 227,000), over 80% of the collection routes are in areas of low housing density. This mixture of high and low housing density will challenge both planners and waste managers in implementing and reviewing the plan

Recent forecasts suggest that there will be an overall increase in the population of around 1.1% (or 5,700) over the next 10 years. Most of the increase will be in Moray and Aberdeenshire with a small loss in population forecast for Aberdeen City. It is also expected that there will be an increase in the number of jobs within the WSA by 0.8% (or over 2200 by 2011). The largest increases will take place in Aberdeen City followed by Moray, with employment in Aberdeenshire remaining comparatively stable. This may mean that the growth patterns in waste will not necessarily be the same throughout the Waste Strategy Area.

While total population numbers are important, the major factor influencing the level of domestic waste generated in the future is the expected change in the number of households. The number of households is expected to rise by almost 12.5% (or 29,000) over the next 15 years as illustrated in Table 1.1. In this case, all three areas will experience growth in household numbers, with the greatest increases being experienced by Aberdeenshire.

Table 1.1 shows changes in the population, household and employment within the WSA. Further work is required on how these changes will translate into impacts on the total waste arising for the area.

Table 1.1 - Population, Household and Employment Projections 2001 to 2011

Sources: Moray - Moray Strategic Forecasts
GRO 2000 Forecasts
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire - Strategic Forecast 2000-2016
All 2001 population figures from the 2001 Census
*Moray’s Household Forecast for 2014

Notes
(1) See Strategic Waste Management Baseline Assessment (SWMBA) available on request.