Solway Tweed river basin characterisation

Solway Tweed river basin characterisation

An economic analysis of water use

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7.2 Annex 2 – Experian Forecasts

The following table summarises the population, household, employment and output forecasts undertaken by Experian Business Strategies Limited for the Solway Tweed RBD. Employment and output forecasts have been undertaken for 30 standard SICs68 as well as a number of disaggregated categories that have some link to water status.

Actual and forecast output is measured in constant price terms (based on 2002 prices). Prices are assumed to remain constant within the forecasts, so that forecast changes in output are net of price movements. Output is defined as a value added measure of production (i.e. net of input costs).

Experian’s industry forecasts for RBDs in Great Britain are summations of ward level forecasts. These forecasts are informed by two key sources of information. The first is historic estimates of employment by industry at the ward level between 1995 and 2002. The second is Experian forecasts for employment and output for industry categories or local/unitary authority districts. The first step is to forecast ward level employment for each industry by using the past relationship in employment in the ward compared to its wider district. The second step is to estimate output in each industry for each ward by applying district level productivity trends to the employment forecast. These ward level forecasts are then aggregated to the relevant RBD boundaries.

For employment and output, data are presented for 30 standard SIC codes, as well as for a number of disaggregated SIC codes. These disaggregated categories were chosen on the basis of the impacts and pressures analysis and as being he most relevant in terms of the risk assessment.

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS Share of economy Annual Average Growth
(thousands) 1995 2002 2015 1995 2002 2015 1995-2002 2002-2015
  (000s) (000s) (000s) % % % % %
Total population 447 448 440       0.0 -0.1
Total households 183 196 215       1.0 0.7

EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT 1995 2002 2015 1995 2002 2015 1995-2002 2002-2015
(thousands) (000s) (000s) (000s) % % % % %
Standard 30 categories                
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 10.0 7.6 6.1 5.8 4.3 3.7 -3.9 -1.7
Oil & gas extraction 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Other mining 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 5.2 -5.7
Gas, electricity & water 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.4 -4.1
Fuel refining 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -23.7 -9.6
Chemicals 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 7.9 -1.3
Minerals 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 2.9 -0.2
Metals 3.1 2.0 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 -5.7 -5.8
Machinery & equipment 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 -3.7
Electrical & optical equipment 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 -11.5 0.0
Transport equipment 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 15.1 -1.7
Food, drink & tobacco 8.5 10.3 9.9 5.0 5.9 6.1 2.9 -0.3
Textiles & clothing 6.6 5.7 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.8 -2.1 -1.8
Wood & wood products 1.2 1.8 2.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 6.0 2.1
Paper, printing & publishing 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 -2.4 -1.9
Rubber & plastics 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 -2.3 -1.1
Other manufacturing 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 -7.5 -0.2
Construction 7.8 9.5 7.9 4.6 5.4 4.8 2.7 -1.4
Retailing 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.8 11.3 10.2 -0.3 -1.3
Wholesale & distribution 10.9 11.5 8.9 6.4 6.6 5.5 0.9 -2.0
Hotels & catering 12.9 15.5 16.5 7.6 8.8 10.2 2.6 0.5
Transport 8.0 7.4 4.6 4.7 4.2 2.9 -1.1 -3.5
Communications 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 3.1 0.0
Banking & insurance 3.8 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.3 -2.8 -3.1
Business services 8.4 10.0 9.3 4.9 5.7 5.7 2.5 -0.6
Other financial & business services 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.5 -1.5
Public administration & defence 11.1 10.0 8.2 6.5 5.7 5.0 -1.4 -1.5
Education 8.2 11.9 12.8 4.8 6.8 7.9 5.4 0.6
Health 23.8 23.1 26.0 13.9 13.2 16.0 -0.4 0.9
Other services 8.0 8.1 10.9 4.7 4.6 6.7 0.1 2.4
Total employees 170.6 175.2 162.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.4 -0.6

EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT 1995 2002 2015 1995 2002 2015 1995-2002 2002-2015
Disaggregated categories (000s) (000s) (000s) % % % % %
Electricity, gas, steam & hot water supply (SIC40) 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.4 -4.0
Production & distribution of electricity (SIC40.1) 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.3 -4.0
Manufacture of gas (SIC40.2) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.4 -4.0
Steam & hot water supply (SIC40.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Collection, purification & distribution of water (SIC41) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -4.4
Manufacture of basic chemicals (SIC24.1) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.3 -2.1
Manufacture of pesticides & other agro-chemicals (SIC24.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 1.5
Manufacture of paint varnishes etc. (SIC24.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.9 -1.9
Manufacture of pharmaceuticals (SIC24.4) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.9 0.9
Manufacture of soaps & detergents (SIC24.5) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 -2.3
Manufacture of other chemical products (SIC24.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 1.5
Manufacture of man made fibres (SIC24.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 -3.5
Manufacture of basic metals (SIC27) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -5.5 -8.7
Manufacture of pulp, paper & paper products (SIC21) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -1.1 -1.4
Mining of coal & lignite (SIC10) 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 20.3 -10.0
Mining of uranium & thorium (SIC12) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Mining of metal ores (SIC13) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Other mining (SIC14) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.8 -3.9
Sewage & refuse disposal (SIC90) 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6
Agriculture, hunting & related activities (SIC01) 3.3 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 -2.0 -1.7
Growing of crops (SIC011) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 -1.1
Growing of cereals (SIC0111) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.3 -1.0
Growing of vegetables (SIC0112) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -4.3 -2.0
Growing of fruits, nuts & spices (SIC0113) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Farming of animals (SIC012) 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 -4.1 -1.9
Farming of cattle (SIC0121) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -3.7 -2.1
Farming of sheep, goats etc. (SIC0122) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -4.4 -1.7
Farming of swine (SIC0123) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.8 -6.8
Farming of poultry (SIC0124) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -4.3 -1.7
Other farming of animals (SIC0125) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.9 -2.3
Growing of crops combined with farming of animals (SIC013) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -2.8 -2.1
Agricultural & animal husbandry service activities, except veterinary (SIC014) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -1.6 -2.0
Hunting, gaming & game propagation (SIC015) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.6 -1.7
Forestry, logging & related activities (SIC02) 5.5 3.8 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.0 -4.9 -1.4
Fishing (SIC05) 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 -4.7 -2.7
Fishing (SIC0501) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -3.5 -1.3
Operation of fish hatcheries & fish farms (SIC0502) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -5.6 -4.2
Production, processing and preserving of meat (SIC151) 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.5 -0.3
Processing and preserving of fish (SIC152) 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 4.7 -0.5
Manufacture of dairy products (SIC155) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 4.7 -0.4
Manufacture of beverage products (SIC159) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.0 0.3
Production of mineral waters and soft drinks (SIC1598) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.0 -0.2
Manufacture of rubber products (SIC251) 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 -3.0 -1.0
Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster (SIC265) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 -0.4
Manufacture of articles of concrete, plaster and cement (SIC266) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.2
Manufacture of of basic iron and steel and ferro-alloys (SIC271) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -10.4 -6.5
Manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals (SIC274) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -2.6 -9.8
Manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles and engines (SIC343) 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 16.7 -1.2
Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft (SIC353) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Camping sites and other provision of short-stay accommodation (SIC552) 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.9 0.8
Sporting activities (SIC926) 1.5 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.3
Manufacture of industrial gases (SIC2411) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6 1.7
Manufacture of dyes and pigments (SIC2412) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals (SIC2413) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0    
Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals (SIC2414) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 -3.2
Manufacture of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds (SIC2415) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.0 -2.2
Manufacture of plastics in primary forms (SIC2416) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 -1.0
Manufacture of synthetic rubber in primary forms (SIC2417) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Casting of light metals (SIC2753) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Casting of other non-ferrous metals (SIC2754) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Sea and coastal water transport (SIC6110) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -3.2 -6.3
Inland water transport (SIC6120) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -1.9
Washing and dry cleaning of textile and fur products (SIC9301) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.1
Construction of water projects (SIC4524) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 -1.5

OUTPUT 1995 2002 2015 1995 2002 2015 1995-2002 2002-2015
(£million, 2000 prices) (000s) (000s) (000s) % % % % %
Standard 30 categories 0.0 0.0 0.0          
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 278.3 261.9 221.4 7.1 6.0 4.3 -0.9 -1.3
Oil & gas extraction 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0   -100.0
Other mining 30.5 37.0 24.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 2.8 -3.1
Gas, electricity & water 72.3 89.2 93.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 3.0 0.4
Fuel refining 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19.7 -10.5
Chemicals 11.0 25.4 34.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 12.7 2.4
Minerals 37.5 47.6 58.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.5 1.6
Metals 76.7 56.4 26.9 2.0 1.3 0.5 -4.3 -5.5
Machinery & equipment 25.7 26.9 20.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 -1.9
Electrical & optical equipment 53.2 28.5 59.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 -8.5 5.8
Transport equipment 9.6 22.5 30.6 0.2 0.5 0.6 12.9 2.4
Food, drink & tobacco 279.4 360.1 442.6 7.2 8.2 8.6 3.7 1.6
Textiles & clothing 151.0 192.8 212.5 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 0.8
Wood & wood products 40.2 52.8 88.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.9 4.1
Paper, printing & publishing 62.2 51.8 47.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 -2.6 -0.7
Rubber & plastics 130.2 112.7 145.9 3.3 2.6 2.8 -2.0 2.0
Other manufacturing 25.1 14.5 18.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 -7.5 1.8
Construction 242.8 285.4 366.0 6.2 6.5 7.1 2.3 1.9
Retailing 264.9 306.1 358.5 6.8 7.0 6.9 2.1 1.2
Wholesale & distribution 279.7 330.5 362.5 7.2 7.6 7.0 2.4 0.7
Hotels & catering 204.8 238.4 298.3 5.3 5.5 5.8 2.2 1.7
Transport 237.3 262.3 208.0 6.1 6.0 4.0 1.4 -1.8
Communications 47.8 94.4 188.9 1.2 2.2 3.7 10.2 5.5
Banking & insurance 91.4 99.3 102.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.2
Business services 166.3 225.5 347.5 4.3 5.2 6.7 4.5 3.4
Other financial & business services 96.7 109.8 128.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.2
Public administration & defence 244.4 219.9 185.1 6.3 5.0 3.6 -1.5 -1.3
Education 187.8 222.1 259.2 4.8 5.1 5.0 2.4 1.2
Health 348.8 383.5 522.4 9.0 8.8 10.1 1.4 2.4
Other services 198.4 214.9 310.6 5.1 4.9 6.0 1.1 2.9
Total Output 3895.5 4372.5 5163.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7 1.3

OUTPUT 1995 2002 2015 1995 2002 2015 1995-2002 2002-2015
Disaggregated categories (000s) (000s) (000s) % % % % %
Electricity, gas, steam & hot water supply (SIC40) 61.1 76.0 80.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 3.2 0.5
Production & distribution of electricity (SIC40.1) 56.9 71.8 76.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 3.4 0.5
Manufacture of gas (SIC40.2) 4.3 4.3 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Steam & hot water supply (SIC40.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Collection, purification & distribution of water (SIC41) 11.2 13.1 13.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3 0.1
Manufacture of basic chemicals (SIC24.1) 1.3 5.9 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.8 2.0
Manufacture of pesticides & other agro-chemicals (SIC24.2) 0.3 1.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.1 4.9
Manufacture of paint varnishes etc. (SIC24.3) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.4 2.2
Manufacture of pharmaceuticals (SIC24.4) 1.6 5.9 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 20.9 4.4
Manufacture of soaps & detergents (SIC24.5) 7.4 11.3 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 6.3 1.1
Manufacture of other chemical products (SIC24.6) 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.9 4.9
Manufacture of man made fibres (SIC24.7) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.2
Manufacture of basic metals (SIC27) 8.1 6.0 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -4.2 -7.9
Manufacture of pulp, paper & paper products (SIC21) 6.3 5.6 5.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -1.8 -0.3
Mining of coal & lignite (SIC10) 3.4 13.7 4.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 22.3 -9.0
Mining of uranium & thorium (SIC12) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Mining of metal ores (SIC13) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Other mining (SIC14) 27.2 23.3 20.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 -2.2 -1.0
Sewage & refuse disposal (SIC90) 30.1 34.9 47.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.3
Agriculture, hunting & related activities (SIC01) 93.1 98.6 81.0 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 -1.5
Growing of crops (SIC011) 23.2 28.8 25.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.2 -0.8
Growing of cereals (SIC0111) 16.4 22.0 20.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 4.3 -0.4
Growing of vegetables (SIC0112) 6.7 6.8 5.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -2.2
Growing of fruits, nuts & spices (SIC0113) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Farming of animals (SIC012) 28.4 26.2 21.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 -1.2 -1.5
Farming of cattle (SIC0121) 12.2 11.0 9.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -1.5 -1.4
Farming of sheep, goats etc. (SIC0122) 5.8 5.0 4.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.1 -0.2
Farming of swine (SIC0123) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -6.9
Farming of poultry (SIC0124) 9.1 8.9 6.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -2.2
Other farming of animals (SIC0125) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -1.8
Growing of crops combined with farming of animals (SIC013) 13.3 14.2 10.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 -2.4
Agricultural & animal husbandry service activities, except veterinary (SIC014) 26.4 27.9 21.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 -1.9
Hunting, gaming & game propagation (SIC015) 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 0.2
Forestry, logging & related activities (SIC02) 148.7 128.7 116.0 3.8 2.9 2.2 -2.0 -0.8
Fishing (SIC05) 36.5 34.6 24.4 0.9 0.8 0.5 -0.8 -2.7
Fishing (SIC0501) 13.2 12.1 12.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.1
Operation of fish hatcheries & fish farms (SIC0502) 23.3 22.5 12.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -4.7
Production, processing and preserving of meat (SIC151) 66.5 85.4 106.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 3.6 1.7
Processing and preserving of fish (SIC152) 68.7 96.3 114.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 4.9 1.3
Manufacture of dairy products (SIC155) 19.7 27.7 33.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 5.0 1.4
Manufacture of beverage products (SIC159) 7.2 8.9 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 2.0
Production of mineral waters and soft drinks (SIC1598) 2.1 3.3 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.5 1.7
Manufacture of rubber products (SIC251) 60.4 49.3 64.8 1.6 1.1 1.3 -2.9 2.1
Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster (SIC265) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.4
Manufacture of articles of concrete, plaster and cement (SIC266) 23.3 23.4 28.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.6
Manufacture of of basic iron and steel and ferro-alloys (SIC271) 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 -8.2 -5.7
Manufacture of basic precious and non-ferrous metals (SIC274) 4.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -2.4 -9.0
Manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles and engines (SIC343) 6.1 17.0 24.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 15.8 2.9
Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft (SIC353) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Camping sites and other provision of short-stay accommodation (SIC552) 14.7 17.4 22.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.5 2.1
Sporting activities (SIC926) 37.2 40.9 58.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.8
Manufacture of industrial gases (SIC2411) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.4 5.0
Manufacture of dyes and pigments (SIC2412) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals (SIC2413) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals (SIC2414) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.4
Manufacture of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds (SIC2415) 0.6 4.3 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 31.4 1.8
Manufacture of plastics in primary forms (SIC2416) 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.7
Manufacture of synthetic rubber in primary forms (SIC2417) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Casting of light metals (SIC2753) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Casting of other non-ferrous metals (SIC2754) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0
Sea and coastal water transport (SIC6110) 16.2 16.8 7.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 -5.6
Inland water transport (SIC6120) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.6
Washing and dry cleaning of textile and fur products (SIC9301) 5.1 5.6 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.6
Construction of water projects (SIC4524) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 1.9


68 SIC codes are Standard Industrial Classification codes, used to uniquely describe an economic activity.

  
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